Google Trends for Researchers

-Hi, I'm Daniel Waisberg, Search Advocate at Google.
-And I'm Omri Weisman, Google Trends Engineering Manager.
In this video, we'll discuss how you can use Google Trends data
to research economic and health indicators.
We'll discuss what's called "nowcasting" in economy,
and then we'll go through two examples
of how researchers have used search interest data
to better understand the world around us.
-If you haven't watched the previous episode in this series,
make sure to check them out
to learn more about how to use Google Trends.
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Nowcasting is the practice of predicting the very recent past, the present,
and the very near future state of an economic indicator.
Hal Varian, Google's Chief Economist,
has been researching nowcasting with Google Trends data for many years
and has published several papers on the subject.
You can find links to learn more about it in the video description.
For the purposes of this video,
nowcasting includes the use of search interest data
blended with external data sources and advanced statistical methods
to estimate the current state of the economy in near real time.
This is in contrast to traditional economic forecasting,
which often relies on data with significant lags
and focuses on predicting future trends.
Example: The gross domestic product, or GDP, is often reported quarterly.
But what if you'd like to track it on a weekly basis?
Would that be possible?
That's what the team at OECD set up to do
with the OECD Weekly Tracker of economic activity.
-The OECD Tracker provided a weekly indicator of economic activity
between 2019 and 2023.
The researchers use machine learning and Google Trends data
to assess economic activity
when it changed rapidly due to the impact of a major shock.
The tracker applied a model to a panel of Google Trends data for 46 countries
and aggregated information about search behavior
related to consumption, labor markets, housing, trade,
industrial activity, and economic uncertainty.
The OECD Tracker project showed that it is possible
to use Google Trends to nowcast GDP on a weekly basis,
even though official government data is only available on a quarterly basis.
Isn't that amazing?
-Another interesting example is Searching for Health,
a collaboration between the Google News Lab,
Alberto Cairo, and Schema Design.
This visualization tracks the top searches for common health issues in the United States
and compares them with the actual location of the occurrences
for those same health conditions.
The visualization includes data from Google Trends
and from the community health status indicators
which provides key indicators for local communities in the United States.
This dataset includes more than 200 measures
for each of the 3,141 United States counties.
I'll go through the project's main idea,
but make sure to visit their website to learn more about it.
When you enter Searching for Health,
you can choose from one of eight available conditions
you're interested in researching.
I'll leave cancer for now.
Notice that, as you scroll down, you'll find summaries of what the data means.
They're super helpful.
The first chart shows search interest
for the condition you choose between 2004 and 2017.
It's followed by a map with a breakdown of search interest by US county.
Scrolling down, you'll find two maps.
One for Google search interest in cancer by county
and the other for mortality rate of cancer by county.
This is followed by an explanation on how searches on health issues
compared to actual occurrences of those same conditions.
Are regions with greater awareness also healthier?
And do healthier regions tend not to worry as much?
Read to learn.
Continuing with the analysis,
you'll find the scatter plot showing the relationship
between search interest and actual cases for all metropolitan areas in the US.
The strongest relationship exists for the regions closest to the dashed line.
So it might be interesting to analyze the outliers,
which are the points farthest from the dashed line.
You can hover over the data points to see who they are.
There is a lot more to learn from this project.
You should check it out when you have time.
Overall, Google Trends is a valuable tool for nowcasting
because it allows researchers to see very clearly and quickly
what people are searching for.
This information can be used to track changes in economic activity
and predict the very recent past, the present,
and the very near future state of an economic indicator.
-Google Trends can help understand how people around the world
look for answers to their questions,
which could be valuable to researchers in areas such as economic activity,
health interest, and behavioral sciences,
just to mention a few.
If you want to see more examples of how Google Trends
has been used by researchers,
go to scholar.google.com and type in Google Trends.
You'll find many interesting papers.
-If you're interested in more videos about Google Trends and Search,
subscribe to the Google Search Central YouTube channel,
and stay tuned.
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